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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising together. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still