A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
